What This Could Look Like for Ontario

We don’t have to look far back to see how an El Niño winter can unfold. During the 2023–24 El Niño, Canada experienced its warmest winter on record, with parts of Ontario seeing some of the country’s largest temperature increases.

But milder doesn’t always mean easier. In 2024, Northern Ontario experienced delayed freeze-up, reduced ice quality, and short winter road operating seasons, limiting safe travel and resupply windows for remote communities.

Central Ontario also saw a significant increase in winter rain and a decline in snow cover, creating challenges for winter recreation and increasing the risk of localized flooding and freezing-rain events, with impacts on transportation, energy, and municipal planning.

Across Ontario, El Niño didn’t remove winter challenges—it reshaped them, replacing deep cold with instability, operational strain, and new management challenges.

While no two El Niños will look the same, research suggests that El Niño events can contribute to more frequent and severe extreme weather. These impacts are occurring alongside a warming climate, which is already increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events.

ORCCA Learning Series: Fall 2026

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Two Forces, One Winter: Preparing your community for El Niño in a changing climate